The Clock Is Ticking for the Bruins

And it’s moving slowly, especially for the fan base.

Today, July 15, 2023 is the final day for players to accept their qualifying offers or they expire. That does not mean they become unrestricted free agents. What it does mean is that contract offer (a qualifying offer is a contract) is no longer on the table, but the players remain restricted free agents.

For the Bruins, they include Reilly Walsh, Alec Regula, Michael DiPietro, Jeremy Swayman and Trent Frederic. Swayman and Frederic have filed for salary arbitration and their salary disputes will go before an arbitrator on July 30 and August 1 respectively. The arbitrator must render his/her decision within 48 hours of the hearing’s conclusion.  

General Manager Don Sweeney has just two weeks remaining to try and reach agreements with Lewis Gross and Allain Roy, the respective agents for Swayman and Frederic. All three parties are being quiet about how negotiations are going, only to say they continue to talk.

Of course, this has a ripple down affect on Patrice Bergeron, should he decide to return for a 20^th season. Sweeney can not come to a contract agreement with his Captain without first knowing what the contracts will be for Swayman and Frederic. What we do know is Bergeron will wait until the Bruins have a clear cap situation and reach an agreement with Sweeney on what works for the team. It’s the same situation as last offseason when Bergeron waited until August 8 to sign his deal after the team had worked out their cap situation.

Swayman will become an unrestricted free agent in 2026 while Frederic reaches that status a year earlier. If Sweeney can’t lock them up long term, then the best-case scenario is a bridge deal where the pair would remain restricted free agents. That would be the team’s best option when they are in a better position next offseason to lock them up long term. Based on their upcoming statuses, the Bruins may opt for a 2-year deal for Swayman and one-year deal for Frederic in arbitration.

It’s become rare for teams and players to actually reach the arbitration process. In recent years, it’s been used more to set a hard deadline to reach an agreement. And that’s fine, neither side really wants to get to the hearing. If you want to know how contentious these hearings get, read “Fish Sticks: The Fall and Rise if the New York Islanders” by Peter Botte when then GM Mike Milbury brought then goaltender Tommy Salo to tears at their hearing.  

That said, I spoke with two long time agents to get a sense on how they feel this will go. They were split on Swayman with one agent believing they will reach a deal before the July 30 hearing begins. However, they were unanimous in their beliefs that Frederic will head to arbitration.

One of the main components in arbitration used by both sides is player comparables to determine dollar value. It seems everyone from media to fan base are certain on who the comparables are for Swayman. But ask 100 people on a comparable for Frederic and you’ll get one hundred different answers.

Here’s what we know with 100 percent certainty:

The Bruins have $5,416,666 in cap space to get Swayman and Frederic under the cap barring any other moves. The team can only walk away from awards greater than $4,538,958 so, for all intents and purposes they will be stuck with the awards. But they can also exceed the cap by 10% in the offseason so if they are pushed over, they can work on clearing the necessary space.

But how would they fit Bergeron on the roster? It’s not as difficult as many are making it out to be.

If they get Swayman and Frederic under contract with their available cap space, if and when Bergeron puts pen to paper the will have a 24-man roster, one more than is allowed. It then becomes a matter of sending that extra body to Providence and structuring Bergeron’s contract like last summer – a base salary with easily attainable performance bonuses that can be carried forward a season when the cap will take a jump and they have some $30 million in cap space.

If they can’t get Swayman and Frederic under the cap, then the Bruins must explore the trade route. Maybe even Frederic himself.

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