The Boston Bruins and Trent Frederic have yet to reach an agreement on what would be his third NHL contract. As you know by now, Frederic has filed for salary arbitration and the two sides have a hearing before the arbitrator set for August 1, 2023 if they can’t come to an agreement before then.
If this does get to arbitration, here is a refresher on the allowable evidence from section 12.9 (g) (ii) (A)-(G) of the CBA:
(A) the overall performance, including National Hockey League official statistics (both offensive and defensive), of the Player in the previous season or seasons;
(B) the number of games played by the Player, his injuries or illnesses during the preceding seasons;
(C) the length of service of the Player in the League and/or with the Club;
(D) the overall contribution of the Player to the competitive success or failure of his Club in the preceding season;
(E) any special qualities of leadership or public appeal not inconsistent with the fulfillment of his responsibilities as a playing member of his team;
(F) the overall performance in the previous season or seasons of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player whose salary is in dispute; and
(G) The compensation of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player, provided, however, that in applying this or any of the above subparagraphs, the Salary Arbitrator shall not consider a Player(s) to be comparable to the party Player unless a party to the salary arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable; nor shall the Salary Arbitrator consider the compensation or performance of a Player(s) unless a party to the salary arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable.
In 2020, the NHL and NHLPA agreed to the following: The comparable player needs to be a Group 2 RFA coming off of the last year of their contract. The comparable player’s position, age, career games, and average ice time should also be as comparable as possible.
Many people are pointing to the recent signing of Tanner Jeannot of the Tampa Bay Lightning who inked a two-year $5,330,000 deal. There is a year difference in age, but their length of service and career statistics are comparable. But last season Frederic’s 17 G – 14 A and +28 in 79 GP outdid Jeannot’s 6 G – 12 A and -7 in 76 games (sorry folks, I know you hate +/- but it is an official NHL stat).
Over at Benchrates, they list Jeannot at a value of $2,281,541. But let’s be realistic here: After giving up 5 draft picks and Cal Foote for Jeannot in a trade with the Nashville Predators, you knew Tampa was going to have to overpay to keep his services, or at the very least, Jeannot could ask for more. That can not come up in arbitration. As for Frederic, Benchrates values him at $3,135,475.
Personally, I have a hard time finding the comparable that Frederic’s side would use in arbitration. On the flip side, I have an even harder time finding the comparable player Evan Gold and the Bruins would use, if in fact it gets to arbitration.
The fact is that there will be a resolution with either the two sides reaching an agreement or the arbitrator rendering a decision. But there has to be a limit the Bruins would go to isn’t there?
As of today, the Bruins have about $5.4 million in cap space for Frederic, Jeremy Swayman and Patrice Bergeron if he is going to return.
The Bergeron situation is the easiest. Once the captain puts pen to paper, they will have to eliminate a player from the roster to get to the 23-man roster limit for opening night. By waiving and sending a player to Providence, it opens up the roster spot and most of the money required to get Bergeron under an easily obtainable performance bonus contract as they did last summer.
The Bruins could also choose to go with a 22-man roster and carry 13 forwards and 7 defencemen and open up the cap space to cover the base salary for Bergeron and carrying over the performance bonuses to 2024-2025. We do know that Bergeron will structure the deal that best suits the Bruins. In this scenario, the likeliest players to be sent to Providence are AJ Greer and Ian Mitchell, which would open up about $1.5 million for a base salary for Bergeron.
The second scenario would be Greer along with Derek Forbort. Like the Mike Reilly situation last season, that would still carry a cap hit for the Bruins but would save them $1,150,000 or about $1.9 million combined for Bergeron’s base salary. There are options here that aren’t difficult.
We know the Bruins aren’t going to want to spend every last dollar. They will want some flexibility in the event they need to call someone up when the eventual injury happens. Either way you slice it, we are back to that $5.4 million. If you believe a greater slice of that pie should go towards Swayman, then there is no way Frederic’s deal can surpass $2.6 million.
The Bruins most certainly have a number in mind for both Frederic and Swayman and anything beyond that they get into uncomfortable territory. General Manager Don Sweeney could, and I stress could, be forced into making a trade to gain cap space.
The obvious solution there would be Forbort and his $3 million cap hit. I know there are many fans that will say trade him for a bag of pucks, but it’s not that simple. Someone has got to want him first. And of the teams that can afford to take on his cap hit without sending money back, well they are going to want an asset attached to take on that salary.
Along with Forbort, Jake DeBrusk and Matt Grzelcyk are scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the year and in DeBrusk’s case, he is due for a substantial raise. Sweeney must know by now what it would take to re-sign one or both and again, it comes down to what the team is comfortable with.
The strength in assets lies with the left side defence with Grzelcyk and Forbort along with Hampus Lindholm, Jakub Zboril and possibly Mason Lohrei making a push at some point during the season if not at camp, that is the position they can lose a body at.
Of course, this is all speculation at this point and we really won’t know anything until one of Frederic or Swayman put pen to paper on a contract or an arbitrator’s decision is handed down.
That’s how crazy arbitration can get.
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Dom - Hockey 