Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk is entering the final year of a two-year deal he signed on March 21, 2022 that carries a cap hit of $4 million. There are two debates going on among the Bruins faithful: The first suggests that if the Bruins can’t sign him by (insert random date here) then they have to move him before losing him for nothing. The second debate is that if the AAV hits (insert random dollar figure here), then the Bruins need to trade him.
Because DeBrusk is on the last year of a multi-year deal, he was eligible to sign an extension beginning July 1, 2023. (Players on one-year deals have to wait until January 1 to sign extensions).
Every summer, there are a lot of players reaching UFA status, even players with DeBrusk’s talent. Teams aren’t usually rushing to trade them and keep them around for a playoff push with the hope of signing them before free agency. And let’s face it, it would make for a pretty boring free agent frenzy for fans.
But the questions raised are legitimate questions. The Bruins are in somewhat of a transition year – one where they will remain competitive but with one eye on the summer of 2024 when the salary cap will have a substantial increase and they look to move back into the top contender category.
I have no doubt the Bruins will do everything they can to lock DeBrusk up before free agency. They’ll even try to lock him up before the end of the upcoming season. At the same time, if management isn’t happy with the team’s success (or failures) and they haven’t reached an agreement with DeBrusk by trade deadline, then they have to strongly consider moving him.
Yes, trade deadline. Not now. Not Christmas. Not January 1.
The same debate raged on a year ago about David Pastrnak and he signed his contract on March 2, 2023, one day before the trade deadline. And trade deadline is where DeBrusk’s value will be at its highest and not before. It requires patience and not overreaction.
As of today, only 11 teams could add DeBrusk’s cap hit without moving salary back. Of those, 5 have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot. Of the remaining 20 teams, you’re going to have to make a hockey trade and those rarely get done after free agency. You might get lucky and find a team that believes they are underachieving and want to shake things up after the season begins, but again, those rarely happen.
But at trade deadline you have 15 teams (maybe even 16 teams) looking to add for a playoff push. That’s when teams will overpay to get the player. Players with a lower value than DeBrusk returned a haul.
But when does the dollar value become too high for the Bruins to entertain trading him? Over at Benchrates, they place DeBrusk’s value at $6,745,318. That certainly seems on par with what many think is fair value. But a lot is dependent on the season ahead for DeBrusk. There is certainly a risk involved for the player if he signs too early and there is a risk to the team if they wait too long. An improvement to last season for DeBrusk could push that over the $7 million mark.
The argument I hear most from naysayers is that you can’t pay DeBrusk more than Brad Marchand. It’s like comparing apples and oranges. When Marchand signed his deal, it was one of the most team friendly deals in the cap era. And it was for 8.39% of the cap. At $7 million, DeBrusk would come in at 8.0% of the cap (with the expected cap rise). It may not seem like much of a difference, but .39% works out to just under $400,000. And yes, I know, many of you don’t like the percentage of cap calculation, but it a real thing in the NHL. As the cap rises, salaries inevitably go up and for those players that sign long-term deals like Marchand did, the percentage goes down every year. It’s the nature of the beast.
Eventually, the Bruins are going to have to decide whether DeBrusk is part of the core moving forward. They’ll also have to decide whether the money might be better spent elsewhere.
The Bruins will do their due diligence.
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Dom - Hockey 