Boston Bruins Prospect Update: Preseason

As we get set for another season of Boston Bruins prospects from around the world, I thought it would be good to start with my preseason outlook and expectations.

Let’s begin by looking at what I call my “chances” chart. Here, I determine what I believe the chances are of each prospect reaching a certain level. A lot goes into determining whether they will eventually play for the Boston Bruins beyond the skill level of the player. The depth chart and where they rank on that depth chart, their value in trade possibilities and their contractual status are just some of the things that come into play.

Let’s begin by looking at last seasons.

Mason Lohrei, Brett Harrison, Ryan Mast and Trevor Kuntar have all signed their Entry Level Contracts and will be playing pro hockey in Providence for the upcoming season therefore, they will be absent on this year’s list. The other absent players are Matias Mantykivi, who the Bruins decided not to offer an ELC too. Dustyn McFaul, who they had to sign before August 15 but is returning to the NCAA is an unrestricted free agent. And at the time of writing, we still do not know what the Bruins intentions are with Frederic Brunet. Will he be with Providence or back in the QMJHL? Here’s a look at this offseason:

Overall, it doesn’t appear to be as strong of a group because of the graduation of the aforementioned players.

There’s been some movement in both a positive and negative way. Matthew Poitras took a jump simply by signing his ELC. Quinn Olson dropped because he opted for a fifth year with the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs and that usually doesn’t translate to NHL success. Jake Schmaltz dropped after a season he’d soon like to forget.

Of the five players the Bruins added at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, a lot will depend on what happens this upcoming season as they begin to move up, but for Chris Pelosi, Beckett Hendrickson and Ryan Walsh my level of confidence is higher than previous players selected where they were. And of course, Jonathan Myrenberg was not on last season’s list because he was acquired from the Vancouver Canucks after the season began.

Something I’ve done for several years but never put out publicly until last season on here is forecasting production. Basically, I have a formula I use to predict production. For the most part, it works out pretty well but it’s not perfect. Is it the formula or is it the player overachieving or underachieving? Here’s a glimpse of last season’s:

There were some big hits like Andre Gasseau and Jackson Edward. There were some big misses like Schmaltz and Olson. And there were those that came in right on target such as Dans Locmelis. I did fail to take into consideration how much it would affect Lohrei coming back from surgery and that was a miss by me.

So, here’s a look at my expectations for the upcoming year:

I don’t expect Nassen to win the scoring title with Frolunda HC in the J20 Nationell but I do think he can finish in the top 10. Fifty points would put him 5 behind what Oskar Jellvik had and 9 behind Locmelis had in their final seasons in the J20.

It will be Myrenberg’s first full season of professional hockey in the SHL I expect some offence from him with the opportunity to play with some talented players. But it’s all about learning to be a pro as I fully expect him to join Providence for the 2024-2025 season.

For Roman Bychkov, his next goal will be his first goal in the KHL. He’s had problems sticking in Russia’s top league behind a lot of depth on his 3^rd team in 3 years.  

Not Earth-shattering numbers for Locmelis but enough to make an impact in his first season in North America and the NCAA. I expect him to be more of a set up guy than a goal scorer in his first season.

It will be a smooth transition for Walsh from the USHL to the NCAA and projects to have a good Freshman season. The expected offence may be a little high.

For Mason Langenbrunner, his freshman year was a learning experience. Expect him to have a breakout of sorts as a sophomore with many more opportunities than he had a year ago.

A little disappointing a year ago for Cole Spicer but a good development camp has set him in the right direction. An increased role with Minnesota-Duluth will help.

Speaking of Minnesota-Duluth, Olson has never reached his offensive potential in 4 years, which is why we’re expecting a drop in his fifth year in the NCAA.

Gasseau was more than a pleasant surprise a year ago and a year later, with more experience and confidence, he looks to have a great season with Boston College.

For Jellvik, his first year in North America went as expected. History has shown he is due for a breakout season and he should come close to doubling his output.

Schmaltz is coming off a disappointing season. Was it injury or illness or did he just regress? He needs a bounce back season with North Dakota or find himself being passed on the depth chart.

Riley Duran will be a fan favorite in Boston one day. He brings so much more than just goals and assists to the table that any offence is just a bonus. I expect him to turn pro at the end of this season.

Ty Gallagher has been a favorite of mine since drafted. I expect that with more offensive opportunities and powerplay time coming his way, he will explode on offence from the blueline.

What Poitras did last season is what was expected from him this season, except the goal totals – so he’s ahead of schedule. He has an elite brain and one of the best playmakers in the OHL that will challenge for a scoring championship.

Edward overachieved a year ago offensively but the rest of his game was on que. He will once again play for a strong and deep London team with more opportunities coming his way.

Hendrickson and Pelosi will be teammates with Sioux Falls and quite possibly even linemates. They are both expected to have big seasons with one emerging as the playmaker and the other the goal scorer. These two should be fun to track and watch.

One of the frequently asked questions is how long the Bruins hold the rights to players and it can get pretty complicated at times. Normally, a player drafted from the CHL, they hold the rights until the second June 1 following the draft. Players drafted from the USHL or one of the Canadian Junior A leagues where the player has committed to an NCAA school, they hold the rights until the fourth August 15 following the draft, unless the player is returning for another season of junior before college then it’s the fifth August 15 following the draft.

Players drafted from a European league that have a transfer agreement with the NHL, they hold the rights until the fourth June 1 following the draft. Players drafted from Russia (no transfer agreement with the NHL), have no expiry on the rights. Players who once had an NHL contract and return to Europe (unless their contract was mutually terminated), they hold the rights until June 30 of their 27^th birth year.

Here’s a look at those players:

If you want to keep tabs on undrafted players invited to development camp, follow Ryan Kirwan, Penn State – NCAA; Blake Smith, Flint Firebirds – OHL; Gleb (Hlib) Artsatbanov, Alberni Valley Bulldogs – BCHL; and Derek Mullahy, Harvard – NCAA. I will provide periodic updates on them throughout the season.

When it all begins: KHL – September 1; J20 Nationell – September 2; SHL – September 14; USHL – September 20; HockeyAllsvenskan – September 22; QMJHL – September 22; WHL – September 22; OHL – September 28; NCAA – October 7.

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