Though the standings remain close and outcomes uncertain until possibly the season’s final day, we can rule out some potential playoff opponents for the Bruins based on the current mathematics of the standings. But not many.
The Blue Jackets have been eliminated from the playoff picture. The Rangers and Hurricanes have clinched the top two spots in the Metropolitan Division – though their final seeding remains uncertain. As a result, the Bruins cannot face the Rangers or Hurricanes until the Conference Finals at the earliest.
A win by Tampa Bay in any fashion means that eight teams still have a mathematical possibility of landing the second wild card spot.
While Ottawa and Montreal remain in contention for the final wild card playoff spot, their chances are nearly impossible. Any combination of three points for the Islanders or combination of three lost points for either Ottawa or Montreal would officially eliminate them from playoff contention.
Any combination 6 Islanders points and Devils lost points would eliminate the Devils. Any combination of 7 points gained by the Islanders and lost by the Sabres would eliminate the Sabres.
That leaves Washington, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Philadelphia.
The Red Wings would be one of the 8 teams unable to surpass the Lightning in the standings mentioned earlier. In this scenario, the Lightning would need just one point to eliminate any chance of the Red Wings securing more than the second wild card playoff spot.
Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the New York Islanders are in a tight four-way battle for third place in the NHL’s Metropolitan Division. The Islanders and Flyers are tied in points, but Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker advantage. Trailing closely behind are Washington and Pittsburgh, who sit two points back with 7 and 6 games remaining, respectively. With all four teams separated by just two points, it is possible that three of them could ultimately miss the playoffs despite being so close in the standings. That would require Detroit taking the second wild card spot.
A lot depends on where the Bruins finish though.
The Bruins currently lead the Panthers by 4 points in the standings, and the two teams face off on Saturday. A regulation win for the Bruins would help solidify their hold on first place in the division. Toronto trails by 10 points, while the Lightning are 12 points back. One more point by Boston would eliminate any chance of Tampa Bay catching them mathematically, and 5 more points would do the same against Toronto. Because of the tiebreaker rules, just 4 more points – if two are Bruins regulation wins and one is a Maple Leafs overtime/shootout win – would also eliminate Toronto. So realistically, the only team still in contention with Boston for the top spot is Florida.
If the Panthers do come out on top, then the only possible playoff opponent in round one is Tampa or Toronto – which ever ends up in third in the Atlantic Division. Toronto currently sits 2 points up on Tampa but has a game in hand.
If the Bruins do end up on top but behind the Rangers (more on that in a bit), we are still left with a possible Tampa or Toronto matchup. But now you can throw in Florida into the equation because the Leafs and Lightning could still catch Florida and drop them into a wild card spot. It’s a near impossible task, but it is mathematically possible.
The easiest path come playoff time for Boston would be to finish ahead of the Rangers, who they trail by one point. But the Rangers do have a game in hand. Their opponent in that scenario: Either Philadelphia, Islanders, Washington, Detroit or Pittsburgh.
I say easier path because it may come down to the last day to see which two of those teams get into the playoffs.
Stay tuned. Because nothing has been decided yet.
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Dom - Hockey 