Why It Is Unlikely Jeremy Swayman Will Be Tendered an Offer Sheet

In the aftermath of the St Louis Blues signing Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to offer sheets, Boston Bruins fans and media alike have turned their attention to the same happening for restricted free agent goaltender Jeremy Swayman.

There appears to be some misunderstanding about the process. Once we clarify this, you will understand why it is very unlikely that Swayman will receive an offer sheet.

Here is the most important part from the CBA that is being overlooked:

Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club’s Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five), based on the following scale:

Under $1.51 million – no compensation

$1.51 million to $2.29 million – 3^rd round pick

$2.29 million to $4.48 million – 2^nd round pick

$4.58 million – $6.87 million – 1^st and 3^rd round picks

$6.87 million – $9.16 million – 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd round picks

$9.16 million – $11.45 million – two firsts, 2^nd and 3^rd round picks

$11.45 million + – four first round picks.

So, let’s clear some things up!

Checking PuckPedia reveals that the Bruins currently have around $8.6 million in salary cap space, which represents the maximum offer they could match. They have the option to maintain a 22-player roster, and depending on which players are sent down to Providence, that available cap space could increase to between $9.4 million and $9.6 million.

We also know that Swayman is looking for a long-term deal. Therefore, any offer sheet would likely come with the maximum 7-year term in order to entice Swayman to sign.

This is where it becomes challenging for any team considering an offer sheet. They need to propose an amount that they believe the Bruins will not match. If they suggest a cap hit of $8.2 million, the Bruins are likely to match it, but if they chose not to, it would be quite costly for those teams.

A 7-year offer at $8.2 million is worth $57.4 million. But according to the CBA, when it comes to calculating the annual value to determine compensation, you divide that by 5 (not 7) to determine the AAV which works out to $11.48 million. The compensation for that? Four first round draft picks.

The Blue Jackets, Ducks, Flames, Sharks, Red Wings, Sabres, and Utah have the financial capability to handle the $8.2 million salary cap impact. However, I believe that only the Red Wings and possibly Utah can afford to forgo the compensation of four first-round draft picks without hindering their rebuilding or retooling efforts.

The Red Wings have their own issues in trying to resign Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond. Is $9.4 million enough to sign the pair after giving $8.2 million to Swayman?

As I said, I believe the Bruins would match an offer that paid Swayman $8.2 million per season. But the cost to a team tendering such an offer sheet is astronomical and why I don’t think we will see one.