
If you regularly read this blog, you’re likely familiar with the chart below. For those who are seeing it for the first time, I use this chart to assess whether a player is meeting their expectations production wise. Scoring points is not the only indicator of success. For example, you wouldn’t expect a strong defensive defenceman to score a lot of goals or produce a lot of points. This chart is just one of the tools I use to track progress.

Elliott Groenewold -Round 4 – 110th – 2024 – Left Defence – Quinnipiac University
Groenewold shows promising potential, which the Bruins acknowledged by trading up in the draft to select him. While his offensive projection may not appear significant now, I would be pleased with his performance as a freshman defenseman, especially as he continues to develop his defensive skills further. There are certainly no issues with the program he is joining in Quinnipiac.
Christopher Pelosi – Round 3 – 92nd – 2023 – Center – Quinnipiac University
As you scroll down to Hendrickson, you might wonder how I have him performing better than Pelosi. Last season, you were surprised to see them ranked the same, but Hendrickson managed to excel. I think Pelosi will be in a stronger program with Quinnipiac, which means he won’t have as many offensive opportunities as Hendrickson. This should help clarify some of the reasoning.
Loke Johansson – Round 6 – 186th – 2024 – Left Defence – Moncton Wildcats
The QMJHL offers a strong opportunity for offensive players, particularly defensemen. However, Johansson primarily excels in defense. Last season, he averaged the same points per game as Kostadinski in the J20 Nationell. Projections indicate that Johansson may not contribute significantly to offense. Instead, he is likely to continue developing as a top-tier, physical shutdown defenseman.
Kristian Kostadinski – Round 7 – 220th – 2023 – Left Defence – Dubuque Fighting Saints
Kostadinski opted for the USHL as his path to the NCAA next season. While Johansson picked a stronger offensive opportunity in the QMJHL, the model suggest that Kostadinski may produce more offense. Skating remains a challenge for the hulking Swedish defenseman, but he has shown improvement. If he continues to develop that skill, his potential will also grow. There is always room for a shut down defenceman in the NHL, but not for two or more.
Jonathan Morello – Round 5 – 154th – 2024 – Center/Left Wing – Dubuque Fighting Saints
I thought Morello would be a late third-round pick. Does that make him a steal? It’s likely that I am mistaken, and the 30-plus teams that chose before him know better. He has a strong two-way game and the ability to score points. I believe the model underestimates his potential. Morello recently decided not to attend Clarkson University, where he was set to start college in the 2025-2026 season. He will play for Dubuque in the USHL this year. The organization will provide Morello with ample opportunities to showcase his skills.
Jonathan Myrenberg – Round 5 – 140th – 2021 (Vancouver) – Right Defence – Linkoping HC
At just 21 years old, Myrenberg holds his own in a league where players average 27 years of age. He is still developing his skills and is expected to become a strong defensive player who excels at moving the puck forward. Current projections suggest he could increase his scoring to 0.40 points per game, which would be a significant improvement from last season. If he achieves this goal, it would be a positive step for him. I see a future for him as an NHL defenseman.
Ryan Walsh – Round 6 – 188th – 2023 – Left Wing/Center/Right Wing – Cornell University
After an impressive season in the USHL, Walsh was drafted as an older player, leading many to wonder how he would fare in the NCAA. He surpassed expectations in goal scoring but did not achieve the same level of success in assists. The current projections indicate a notable increase in his production for this season. While I would not underestimate Walsh, it will be a challenge to meet expectations.
Mason Langenbrunner – Round 5 – 151st – 2020 – Right Defence – Harvard University
A group of fans were disappointed with this choice because he is the son of Jamie Langenbrunner, who still works with the Bruins. However, he fits the profile of a player worth taking a risk on late in the draft. He has potential, but he was considered a raw talent with a long path to development. So far, his progress hasn’t met expectations, largely because he played on a struggling team. The current forecasts suggest limited offensive output, but he may still carve out a role as a strong defensive player, though there are many others competing for that position.
Casper Nassen – Round 7 – 214th – 2023 – Left Wing/Center/Right Wing – Miami University (Ohio)
Nassen needed to emulate the performance of Oskar Jellvik and Dans Locmelis in the J20 Nationell last season, regardless of his draft position. However, he struggled at the beginning of the season, but his production improved in the second half, matching their pace. As he adjusts to playing in North America, he should achieve similar numbers to Jellvik’s freshman year. Nassen can play in any forward position, but he performs best as a left winger, which is his off side.
Dans Locmelis – Round 4 – 119th – 2022 – Center – University of Massachusetts
Last season, Locmelis often didn’t find himself in the most favorable offensive situations or with the strongest teammates. However, this upcoming season is set to be different, and his experience in North America will be an advantage. Additionally, the value of his extensive international experience should not be overlooked. He is expected to rival Jellvik’s offensive output from his second NCAA season.
Oskar Jellvik – Round 5 – 149th – 2021 – Left Wing – Boston College
Last season, my model had high hopes for Jellvik, and he exceeded them impressively. This bodes well for the Bruins and their fans, as it raises expectations even higher for this season, which could be his last before going pro in the spring. While it might seem ambitious to expect 18 goals and 36 assists from him, I believe he has the potential to achieve those numbers.
Andre Gasseau – Round 7 – 213th – 2021 – Center/Wing – Boston College
Gasseau saw a slight decline in his performance last season, even though he spent most of his time playing alongside Jellvik, who had an outstanding year. On the positive side, Gasseau made significant progress in improving his defensive skills. The predictions indicate that not only will he bounce back, but he is also likely to show a modest increase in his production next season, which is within his reach.
Dean Letourneau – Round 1 – 25th – 2024 – Center – Boston College
I found myself unprepared because I didn’t have a formula for a player moving directly from Canadian Prep School to the NCAA. As a result, I had to adapt on the fly. While 6 goals and 11 assists might not look impressive at first glance, transitioning from prep school to the NCAA is a significant leap. At this stage, we are uncertain about the specific role Letourneau will play, which makes it even harder to predict his performance.
Jake Schmaltz – Round 7 – 192nd – 2019 – Center – University of North Dakota
Schmaltz has experienced a decline in his production every year in the NCHC. Despite this trend, projections indicate that he will improve upon the 1 goal and 10 assists he achieved last season, potentially nearing his freshman totals of 8 goals and 16 assists. This anticipated increase is partly because he is expected to have more chances to contribute offensively.
Beckett Hendrickson – Round 4 – 124th – 2023 – Center/Left Wing – University of Minnesota
Hendrickson had an impressive season last year, and the forecasts indicate he will continue that success in his freshman year at Minnesota. He is capable of playing both center and wing, but I think he excels most as a winger. It will be a challenge for Hendrickson to achieve his targets, but among these prospects, he has the best chance to succeed.
Ty Gallagher – Round 7 – 217th – 2021 – Right Defence – Colorado College
Ty Gallagher needs a strong comeback in his senior season. He demonstrated significant offensive talent while playing for the US National Team Development Program and during his first two years at Boston University. However, last year was challenging for him, as he often found himself as the seventh defenseman, struggling to get playing time. After entering the transfer portal, he is now set to reinvigorate his career at Colorado College.
Snap shot:
At first glance, this list may not seem very promising in terms of offensive potential. However, players like Letourneau, Pelosi, Hendrickson, Nassen, and others are moving up a level and will be considered “rookies” in the upcoming season. Additionally, there are several defensemen on the roster who are not known for their offensive contributions.
That’s why following their development is important and we will do that for you here. It’s not just about the points for most of these players this season.
Chris Nosek and myself discussed this on the last episode of the Dom-Hockey Podcast. Please have a listen and if you enjoy the show, please give us a like and consider subscribing.



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