That’s a difficult one, and finding an answer is just as challenging.
AFP analytics projects Geekie’s next contract to span four years with an average annual value of $6,588,631, a significant increase from his current two-year deal carrying an AAV of $2,000,000.
The reality is, we’re venturing into uncharted territory.
The NHL and NHLPA agreed to a salary cap increase exceeding 5%, surpassing the limit currently set in the CBA. The cap will climb from $88 million to $95.5 million next season, followed by a substantial jump to $104 million in 2026-2027 and $113.5 million in 2027-2028. Nearly every team in the league will have cap space to maneuver this season.
An agent I spoke with confirmed that he has engaged in discussions with restricted free agents, exploring the possibility of a one- or two-year deal with the aim of securing a more lucrative contract either next offseason or in the summer of 2027.
Opting for a one-year deal carries some risk for Geekie, but if he can replicate this season’s performance—where he came just one goal short of doubling his previous career high of 17—he could command an even higher salary. Additionally, he would become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the contract, further enhancing his potential for a more lucrative deal.
As long as Geekie remains alongside David Pastrnak—and there’s no indication that he won’t—he’ll have plenty of scoring opportunities. This season, he registered 307 shot attempts, with 150 (or 48.8%) finding the net, and 33 resulted in goals, an unsustainably high 22.0% shooting percentage. However, if his performance regresses to prior season levels, he could end up costing himself millions in future earnings.
There is risk for the Bruins as well. Should they lock him up to a long-term deal and Geekie can’t replicate this season, they are stuck with a big contract. But if they sign him to a one-year deal and he has another great season, you may have to compete with 31 teams for his services and that gets even more expensive.
And then there is the dreaded arbitration in which Geekie is eligible. I can’t foresee any scenario where the Bruins smelling like flowers in arbitration. They may win the award, but it also takes Geekie to unrestricted free agency and then you get into the bidding war if he has a successful season. Or he may have a bad season and you just walk away after the season.
I just don’t see this as an easy negotiation. In fact, I think it’s a very complicated one that could take some time to sort out.
The conclusion is anyone’s guess.
Dom - Hockey 