Worried About Where the Bruins Will Be Drafting?

On any given night, it feels like Bruins fans are just as fixated on where that pick from the Maple Leafs — acquired in the Brandon Carlo deal — might land as they are on the actual standings. At times, it even seems like a sizable chunk of the fan base is more dialed in on Toronto’s results than Boston’s place in the playoff race.

I’m not here to tell you whether to panic or shrug it off — just to lay out the relevant information so you can decide for yourself. What I will say is this: with Fraser Minten and Vashek Blanar already in the fold, the Bruins have essentially won the trade. And if that pick hits, it doesn’t just seal the deal — it elevates the entire return to another level. No matter where the pick lands.

Fair warning: there’s some math involved — but I’ve already done the heavy lifting. So let’s dive in.

This first chart lays out the standings as of Monday night’s NHL action. You can see each team’s games remaining and the maximum number of points they can still reach. We’ll dig into the remaining schedules shortly.

Team	GP	PTS	POSSIBLE POINTS
Vancouver	73	50	68
Chicago	74	67	83
Rangers	74	69	85
Calgary	74	70	86
St Louis	73	73	91
Florida	73	73	91
Winnipeg	73	74	92
San Jose	72	75	95
Seattle	72	75	95
Los Angeles	73	76	94
Toronto	75	77	91

That part’s straightforward enough. But reality rarely plays out cleanly — not every team is going to run the table, especially with so many head‑to‑head matchups still on the slate.

So, I break it down into “magic numbers,” shown in the chart below. A magic number is the combined total of Leafs wins and other teams’ losses needed before a club can no longer catch Toronto.

For example, the magic number to clinch over the Hawks is 3. If Toronto wins one game and the Hawks drop two — that’s three combined results — Chicago can’t catch them. The number against the Rangers is 4, meaning any mix of Leafs wins and Rangers losses totaling four would put New York out of reach. And so on.

TEAM	GR	MAGIC NUMBER
Vancouver	9	Clinched
Chicago	8	3
Rangers	8	4
Calgary	8	5
St Louis	9	7.5
Florida	9	7.5
Winnipeg	9	8
San Jose	10	9
Seattle	10	9
Los Angeles	9	8.5

The Vancouver Canucks are already out of reach and can no longer catch the Leafs. Among the nine teams still jockeying with Toronto, there are 80 total games left — and 32 of them, or 40%, are head‑to‑head matchups. That much intra‑group traffic automatically chips away at the magic numbers, reducing them by a combined 25. How those reductions shake out depends entirely on who beats whom. And all of it happens without the Leafs taping their sticks.

Of course, some of those games are going to turn into three‑point results — that’s inevitable. But even three‑point games cap how many points a team can ultimately reach, which still chips away at the magic numbers. If every one of them ended as a three‑point game, the combined reduction would be 13. And again, that’s with the Leafs not even tying their laces.

Here’s a look at each team’s remaining schedule. Gold games highlight games between teams the Leafs are battling with while blue highlights games against current playoff teams. The remaining are against bubble teams or the Canucks.

Chicago	@ EDM	@ SEA	vs WPG	@ SJ	vs CAR	vs StL	vs BUF	vs SJ	–	–
Rangers	vs NJ	vs MTL	vs DET	vs WAS	vs BUF	@ DAL	@ FLA	@ TB	–	–
Calgary	@ COL	@ VGK	@ ANA	@ DAL	@ SEA	vs UTA	vs COL	vs LA	–	–
St Louis	@ LA	@ ANA	@ COL	vs COL	vs WPG	@ CHI	vs MIN	vs PIT	@ UTA	–
Florida	vs OTT	vs BOS	@ PIT	@ PIT	@ MTL	@ OTT	@ TOR	vs NYR	vs DET	–
Winnipeg	@ CHI	@ DAL	@ CBJ	vs SEA	@ STL	vs PHI	@ VGK	@ UTA	vs SJ	–
San Jose	vs ANA	vs TOR	vs NAS	vs CHI	vs EDM	@ ANA	vs VAN	at NAS	at CHI	at WIN
Seattle	@ EDM	vs UTA	vs CHI	@ WPG	@ MIN	vs VGK	vs CLG	vs LA	@ VGK	@ COL
Los Angeles	vs STL	vs NAS	vs TOR	vs NAS	vs VAN	vs EDM	@ SEA	@ VAN	@ CGY	–
Toronto	@ SJ	@ LA	vs WAS	@ NYI	vs FLA	vs DAL	@ OTT	–	–	–

This, of course, doesn’t factor in the draft lottery — and no one can predict how that will unfold.