In more than 55 years of watching hockey, it’s hard to recall a season with this much on the line this late. The questions are endless, the scenarios even more so. So I’ve crunched the numbers and broken down the key situations involving the Bruins. All scenarios reflect the standings as of Sunday’s games.
Team above them In the Atlantic Race
One point gained by Tampa Bay — or a single point dropped by Boston — would put the Lightning out of reach for Boston, The Lightning holding the tiebreaker in the unlikely event they end up tied.
A Sabres win paired with a Bruins loss — in any fashion — would put the Sabres out of reach for Boston. Buffalo holds the tiebreaker if they end up tied.
Four points gained by Montreal — or lost by Boston — would put the Canadiens out of reach Boston. Either team still capable of owning the tiebreaker should they end up tied.
Wild Card Race
One point gained by Boston — or dropped by Washington — would eliminate the Capitals from the race to catch the Bruins. At this stage, the best Washington can do is pull even, but Washington would hold the tiebreaker and would need the Bruins to lose their remaining games in regulation.
Four points gained by Boston — or dropped by Columbus — would eliminate the Blue Jackets from any chance of catching the Bruins. Even if the teams were to finish tied, the first tiebreaker could end up even as well, but Boston holds the second tiebreaker. In short, a four‑point swing makes it mathematically impossible for Columbus to close the gap.
Four points gained by Boston — or lost by Detroit — would knock the Red Wings out of the race to catch the Bruins. With neither the first nor second tiebreaker locked in, Boston still needs that four‑point swing to make it mathematically impossible for Detroit to close the gap.
Three points gained by Boston — or dropped by the Islanders — would eliminate New York from the race. A Bruins regulation win could still leave the teams tied, and if the Islanders were to run the table in regulation, the first tiebreaker would also end up even. In that scenario, New York would hold the second tiebreaker. If even one of the Islanders remaining four go into overtime or shootout, the Bruins hold the first tiebreaker.
Six points gained by Boston — or dropped by Ottawa — would take the Senators out of the race. A five‑point swing would leave the teams tied, with Ottawa currently holding the first tiebreaker. If that tiebreaker ends up even, Boston owns the second. In short, the Bruins need six points to make it mathematically impossible for Ottawa to catch them.
Philadelphia is a different case, sitting third in the Metro and holding a playoff spot. For the Flyers to even enter the Wild Card race, they’d first need to be passed by Columbus or Washington. If that happens, a five‑point swing — gained by Boston or lost by Philadelphia — would leave the two teams tied at 100 points. But the Bruins already own the first tiebreaker, giving them the edge in any deadlock.
Draft Picks
Some days it’s hard to tell whether Bruins fans are more locked in on the playoff race or on where those first‑round picks might land. Either way, here’s a full breakdown to make sense of it all.
Florida Panthers
The Bruins own one of Florida’s first‑round picks — but with conditions. If the Panthers land in the top 10, they keep the pick this year, with their 2027 first going to Chicago and 2028 shifting to Boston. If the pick falls outside the top 10, Chicago gets Florida’s 2026 first‑rounder and the Bruins receive the 2027 pick instead.
The Panthers currently hold the sixth‑worst record in the NHL, which would push the Bruins’ acquired pick to 2028. But Florida is only two points from sliding to 10th‑worst — and four points from 11th, a scenario that would shift the pick to 2027 instead.
With five games left, Florida climbing out of danger looks like a long shot. The Panthers could still finish as high as ninth‑worst and have two teams leapfrog them via the lottery, pushing them to 11th — but the odds of that scenario are slim to none.
Toronto Maple Leafs
All eyes are on the Maple Leafs and their top‑5 protected pick, and this one could go right down to the wire. Just remember: all of this is pre‑lottery. Once the ping‑pong balls drop, the entire picture can shift in an instant.
The Leafs currently sit with the seventh‑worst record, and Vancouver — locked into the league’s basement — can no longer catch them.
Chicago sits with the league’s second‑worst record, eight points back with six games remaining, while the Leafs have five left. Any combination of Toronto points gained and Chicago points lost totaling three would put the Blackhawks out of reach, locking the Leafs into no worse than the third pick. The two clubs could still finish tied, with Chicago potentially taking the first tiebreaker — but if that also ends up even, Toronto owns the second.
Calgary holds the league’s third‑worst record, six points back of the Leafs with six games to play. Any combination of Toronto points gained and Flames points lost totaling seven would put Calgary out of reach, securing the fourth pick for the Leafs (depending on what the Rangers do). If the teams finish tied, Calgary currently owns the first tiebreaker — but Toronto holds the second.
The New York Rangers hold the league’s fourth‑worst record, three points back of the Leafs with four games remaining. Any combination of Toronto points gained and Rangers points lost totaling six would put New York out of reach. If the teams finish tied, the Rangers currently own the first tiebreaker — but if that also ends up even, the Leafs currently hold the second.
Seattle holds the fifth pick with the league’s fifth‑worst record, sitting three points back of the Leafs with seven games to go. The math here isn’t pretty: it would take a combined total of 12 Toronto points gained and Kraken points lost for the Leafs to lock in this spot, especially with Seattle currently owning both tiebreakers.
The Panthers sit next with the league’s sixth‑worst record and, realistically, have a better shot at finishing below the Leafs than Seattle does. Florida is just one point back, with both teams holding five games remaining. The Panthers already have the first tiebreaker locked up — 29 regulation wins to Toronto’s 23 — meaning the Leafs would need to win the race outright. That requires a combined total of 10 Toronto points gained and Panthers points lost.
Of course, there are teams still ahead of them the Leafs could overtake, but that math gets even uglier.
