Keeping An Eye On the Draft Positions

All Eyes Are On Where The Leafs Finish

Bruins fans are riding a wave of late‑season tension as the NHL barrels into its final weekend and closing week of the regular season. All eyes in Boston keep drifting north to Toronto, where the fate of the Maple Leafs’ first‑round pick — and whether it stays outside the top five — hangs over the draft board like a storm cloud. If it does, that pick belongs to the Bruins, and the fanbase is feeling every bit of that anxiety as the standings tighten.

All of it comes with a giant asterisk, of course. The real drama doesn’t unfold until the lottery balls drop on May 5, when the ping‑pong chaos could either lock that pick in place or send it ricocheting up — and out of Boston’s reach.

So, let’s flip the standings upside‑down and work from the bottom. When teams finish tied, the first sorting mechanism is regulation wins (RW). If that doesn’t separate them, it moves to regulation and overtime wins (ROW). Still even? Then it’s total wins (W). And if somehow the deadlock survives all that, the final breaker is the head‑to‑head matchup.

You’ll also notice each team’s maximum possible points (POSS) — the ceiling they can still hit if they win out. But there’s an important caveat: only New Jersey can realistically chase its full total. While technically the other clubs could, every other club on this list is tangled in head‑to‑head matchups down the stretch, which means someone has to drop points.

PK	TEAM	GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	RW	ROW	POSS
1	Vancouver	78	22	48	8	52	15	17	clinched
2	Chicago	79	28	37	14	70	21	25	clinched
3	Calgary	78	32	37	9	73	25	28	81
4	Rangers	79	33	37	9	75	24	30	81
5	Seattle	78	33	34	11	77	25	31	85
6	Toronto	79	32	33	14	78	23	31	84
7	Florida	79	37	38	4	78	29	32	84
8	St Louis	78	33	33	7	78	29	32	86
9	San Jose	78	37	34	7	81	25	35	89
10	Winnipeg	78	35	31	12	82	28	32	90
11	New Jersey	79	40	36	3	83	28	36	89

There are two picks in question here and I’ll tackle the easiest one first; The Florida Panthers.

If Florida slips outside the top 10, the Bruins cash in immediately with the Panthers’ 2027 first‑round pick. But if the Panthers finish inside that protected window, Boston’s payout gets pushed down the road — the Bruins would instead receive Florida’s 2028 first‑rounder.

I’ve always leaned toward the idea that the sooner the pick, the better, if only because the trade value spikes. And while the math technically leaves the door open for Florida to finish 11th, that scenario is hanging by a thread.

Realistically, the Bruins’ best shot at landing the 2027 pick comes from a far cleaner path: the Panthers finishing ninth, then watching two teams ahead of them jump in the lottery and bump Florida down to 11th. It’s unlikely, but it’s the clearest route on the board.

The real nerves, though, are tied to wherever the Leafs’ pick ultimately lands. That tension isn’t going anywhere until the lottery balls settle, but Toronto finishing outside the top five now would at least let Bruins fans breathe a little easier while they wait for the real verdict.

At this point, only two teams — Vancouver and Chicago — are mathematically incapable of catching Toronto. So even if the Leafs completely unravel down the stretch, that would mean third and the lottery can only push them as low as fifth overall, which would allow them to keep the pick this year.

Calgary sits in the No. 3 spot, five points back of Toronto with four games to go. To catch the Leafs, the Flames would need to post at least a 2‑1‑1 finish — they hold the tiebreaker — while Toronto would have to lose out. Their path isn’t exactly a layup: at Seattle, home to Utah and Colorado, then closing in Los Angeles. And as you’ll see below, that matchup with Seattle looms large — but it can’t go past regulation.

Sitting in the four‑spot are the New York Rangers, three points back of Toronto with three games left. For New York to leapfrog the Leafs, they need to go 1‑1‑1 — with their lone win coming in any fashion — while Toronto loses out. If the Leafs manage even one regulation win the rest of the way, the Rangers’ path tightens: they’d need to finish 2‑0‑1, with at least one of those victories coming in regulation. Their closing slate isn’t soft, either: at Dallas, home to Florida, and a finale in Tampa.

In the five‑spot sit the Seattle Kraken, just a single point back of Toronto with four games to go. Even if the Leafs run the table at 3‑0‑0, nothing is guaranteed — Seattle could still post a 3‑0‑1 finish and leapfrog them with only one of those wins coming in regulation. Both paths are long shots, but they’re on the board. That looming matchup with Calgary is massive, and from Boston’s perspective, a Flames win in regulation is the ideal outcome. Beyond that, Seattle’s slate is a gauntlet: home to Los Angeles, then road dates in Vegas and Colorado. The Kings are fighting for their playoff lives, the Golden Knights are pushing for the Pacific crown, and the Avalanche have nothing left to play for — a mix that could make Seattle’s final week unpredictable.

In the sixth spot is the Leafs with games at home to Florida and Dallas and close out on the road in Ottawa.

In the seven‑spot sit the Florida Panthers, locked at 78 points alongside Toronto and St. Louis with three games to go. Their remaining slate is easier — at Toronto, then home dates against the Rangers and Detroit — and that showdown with the Leafs carries massive weight. But even if Toronto grabs a regulation win in that head‑to‑head, nothing is settled. Because Florida owns the tiebreaker with ease, the Leafs would still need three of four possible points in their final two games to stay ahead — assuming the Panthers close out 2‑0‑0. And with Seattle lurking in the mix, Toronto may very well need to clear Florida outright to keep that pick from slipping into protected territory.

In the eight‑spot, also tied with Toronto, are the St. Louis Blues. They’ve got four games left — at Chicago, then home dates with Minnesota and Pittsburgh, before finishing on the road in Utah. Outside of that Chicago matchup, it’s arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in this cluster. Even if the Blues only take care of business against the Blackhawks, Toronto would still need to go 1‑1‑1 over its final three games, because St. Louis already owns the tiebreaker. It’s not impossible for the Leafs to move ahead — but it’s definitely an uphill climb.

While the Leafs can still technically chase down San Jose, Winnipeg, and New Jersey, the math gets messy fast. The Jets and Sharks play each other down the stretch, which means one of them is guaranteed to pick up points — potentially putting Winnipeg out of reach entirely, or leaving San Jose needing just a single point to do the same. And as things stand, the Devils are even closer to slamming that door shut. One point is all New Jersey needs to move beyond Toronto’s grasp.

Below is the remaining schedule:

TEAM	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU
CALGARY	at SEA	vs UTA		vs COL		vs LA
RANGERS	at DAL		at FLA		at TB
SEATTLE	vs CGY		vs LA		at VGK	at COL
TORONTO	vs TOR		vs DAL		At OTT
FLORIDA	at TOR		vs NYR		Vs DET
ST LOUIS	at CHI		vs MIN	vs PIT		at UTA