All Eyes Will Be Glued To Their Televisions On May 5.
The 1,312‑game NHL regular season is officially in the books. And while Bruins fans are understandably fired up for the playoffs, many will admit their eyes are already drifting toward May 5 — when the league conducts its draft lottery live from NHL Network Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey.
The NHL will conduct two lotteries: To determine the first and second overall picks at the 2026 NHL Draft. All 16 non-playoff teams will take part and no team can move up more than 10 spots.
At stake for the Bruins is a potential windfall — the chance to add another foundational piece to a system already trending upward. The Toronto Maple Leafs, currently sitting fifth, would send their pick to Boston if they slip out of the top five. You can imagine the viewership surge as Bruins and Leafs fans plant themselves in front of their TVs, hanging on every lottery ball.
The outcome has the potential to accelerate Boston’s retool while simultaneously dealing a setback to Toronto’s efforts to rebound sooner rather than later.
The draw for the first overall pick is conducted first, and that’s where Toronto’s situation gets interesting. For the Maple Leafs to fall out of the top five, any team below them — except the Washington Capitals, who can only climb a maximum of 10 spots to sixth— would need to win the lottery. That leaves ten eligible teams with a chance to leapfrog Toronto and push them down the board, keeping the Bruins’ hopes very much alive.
But even if that scenario unfolds, Toronto would still have a lifeline. In the second draw, the Leafs would have a shot at the No. 2 pick — and winning it would allow them to retain the selection rather than sending it to Boston. Unless the New Jersey Devils – in twelfth spot – wins the first lottery as they can only move up to second, then the Leafs would get the third pick.
If no team leapfrogs the Leafs in the first lottery, the same dynamic carries over to the second draw — the identical group of teams would once again have a chance to push Toronto down the order, with Washington remaining the exception.
Locked into the fifth slot, the Maple Leafs carry an 8.5 percent chance of winning the first overall pick and an 8.6 percent shot at landing second overall. There’s also a 24.5 percent likelihood they simply stay put at No. 5 — all outcomes Bruins fans are hoping to avoid.
There’s a 44 percent chance a team below Toronto wins the lottery and bumps the Leafs down to sixth, and a 14.2 percent chance that two teams jump them, dropping Toronto all the way to seventh. And as you know, either outcome would send the pick straight to Boston, dramatically reshaping the Bruins’ draft outlook.
In all, there’s a 58.2 percent chance the pick ultimately transfers to the Bruins — a figure that highlights just how precarious Toronto’s position really is. And if Boston ends up adding another potential foundational piece while Leafs fans are still digesting the breakout season Fraser Minten just delivered, it would land as a particularly bitter blow in Toronto.
The odds are certainly tilted in Boston’s favor — and we’ve seen how quickly things can swing. Just last year, the Bruins slid from fifth to seventh when the New York Islanders vaulted from tenth to first and the Utah Mammoth jumped from fourteenth to fourth. It’s a reminder that chaos is always in play on lottery night, and the Bruins stand to benefit if history repeats itself.
Here is a reminder of the conditions of the pick:
If the pick from number 5 spot drops in the Lottery in 2026 – it becomes the Bruins pick.
If the pick remains in the top 5 after the lottery the Leafs keep the pick AND;
If it is outside top-10 after the lottery in 2027 the Flyers will get the pick and the Bruins will get the Leafs 2028 first round pick unprotected OR;
If the pick is top-10 in 2027, the Leafs have the choice of sending it to the Flyers or Bruins with the other getting the Leafs 2028 pick unprotected.
The draft lottery is just 18 days away. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the playoffs!
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