I always kick off this series by revisiting how each prospect stacked up against projections. For those new to the process, at the start of every season I project a player’s anticipated production using a proprietary model I’ve built over the years. I did the same again this season—and if you want a refresher, you can look back at those preseason benchmarks.
The challenge with doing this in early September is that part of the model relies on projecting a player’s role, usage, and linemates. Most years, that’s fairly straightforward, but every season there are one or two situations where those variables shift and the projection takes a hit. Even so, the method has proven to be remarkably reliable over time.
Liam Pettersson – Vaxjo Lakers – U20 Nationell
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 9 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Pettersson suited up for just 19 of Vaxjo’s 41 games this season, half the year due to injury — though he did log a half‑dozen appearances with the SHL’s Vaxjo Lakers. Had he played the full slate, his production tracked to 10 goals and 13 assists, right in line with projections.
The 2025 second‑rounder rarely surfaces in Bruins prospect conversations — whether because he missed part of the season or simply because he’s developing overseas in Sweden. He’s also the largely forgotten piece from last year’s trade‑deadline deal with the Colorado Avalanche.
Pettersson checks every box the Bruins have prioritized on the back end lately — size, mobility, physicality, transition ability, and a touch of offensive upside. There’s no firm decision yet on where he’ll play next season, but he has left Vaxjo and signed Djurgardens IF. Whether that’s with the SHL club or lower level is to be determined. He’s already had a taste of pro hockey in Sweden at 18 and 19, and a larger role in the SHL could accelerate his development in the right environment.
Vashek Blanar – HV71 – U20 Nationell
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 8 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 20 |
Blanar finished almost exactly on pace despite playing for an HV71 squad that struggled all year — missing the U20 Nationell playoffs and landing in the relegation round. And when he wasn’t in the lineup, the drop‑off was glaring; bluntly put, they were an awful team without him.
Like Pettersson, the 2025 fourth‑rounder is the overlooked piece from the Bruins’ 2025 trade‑deadline deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs. When Boston announced the pick, GM Don Sweeney had everyone scrambling to figure out who Blanar was. But once development camp rolled around, it didn’t take long — everyone in attendance knew exactly who he was.
Blanar is charting a different path than his counterpart in Sweden. He’s headed to the University of Massachusetts for the 2027-28 season, giving North American fans a closer look at his game but will return to junior for next season. He was selected by the Youngstown Phantoms in the recent USHL Draft. Like some of the Bruins’ other recent blue‑line targets, he brings the full toolkit of their “modern‑day defenseman.” His development curve, however, may take a bit longer.
Kirill Yemelyanov – Loko Yaroslavl – MHL
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 33 | 29 | 62 | 32 | 25 | 57 |
Back in the preseason, I set the bar: anything under a point‑per‑game would be a disappointment for Yemelyanov at this level. He cleared it — barely — finishing with 57 points in 55 games. He did fall just short of his projected pace, though missing five games certainly factored into it.
For a 2025 sixth‑round pick, this is perfectly acceptable progress. Yemelyanov was always viewed as a longer‑term project, with the biggest area of emphasis being his defensive play and work away from the puck. And that part of his game took a noticeable step forward — the growth from Game 1 to Game 55 was evident.
The Bruins can afford to be patient with Yemelyanov. As a Russian prospect, they retain his rights indefinitely, giving them plenty of runway. The most likely path has him spending next season in the VHL — Russia’s equivalent of the AHL — before making the jump to the KHL. From there, a year or two at that level would set the stage for a move to North America.
Casper Nassen – University of Miami (Ohio)
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 8 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
Since the Bruins grabbed Nassen in the seventh-round back in 2023, this is the closest he’s come to hitting his projected output. He did most of it while operating as a third‑line winger — a step down from last season, when he logged significant minutes on the second line.
While I built the model that generates these projections, it’s hardly the definitive measure of a player’s value. And even if it were, simply meeting middling expectations doesn’t exactly tilt things in the player’s favor.
Since his draft‑plus‑one season with Frölunda in the U20 Nationell, he simply hasn’t met expectations. Sure, there’s room for a rebound – he entered the transfer portal for his junior year, and the natural comparison is to players like Dans Locmelis or Oskar Jellvik, who followed a similar path. But the eye test tells its own story — and right now, it’s hard to see a trajectory that says NHL player.
Will Zellers – University of North Dakota
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 12 | 10 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 34 |
Will Zellers didn’t just outperform expectations — he detonated them. His freshman season was impressive on its own, but then he rolled into the World Junior Championship and became one of Team USA’s most dynamic skaters.
Back at North Dakota, he put up 34 points in 38 games, fourth on a Frozen Four squad, and he did it while driving play every night. He led the team in shots (122), power‑play goals (7), and game‑winners (6) — and none of those categories were particularly close. Simply put, he wasn’t just good for a freshman. He was one of the most impactful players on the ice, period.
There’s been plenty of buzz on social media urging Zellers to turn pro, but the smarter play — for both the Bruins and the player — is another year at North Dakota. Providence will have roster spots open next season, but that shouldn’t be the deciding factor. What matters is where his development will accelerate the most, and right now, that’s still in Grand Forks. Another year in that environment could sharpen his game even further before he makes the jump.
Oskar Jellvik – Boston College
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 11 | 28 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Jellvik’s last two seasons have been turbulent, a sharp turn from the promise he flashed as a breakout sophomore. After being limited to just 23 games a year ago before his season was shut down, he managed only eight appearances this year. That kind of stalled development forces a bigger conversation in Boston. At this point, the real question becomes unavoidable: what’s the Bruins’ play with him now?
I touched on that not long ago here, and the truth is we’ll never really know where Jellvik’s trajectory would sit today if injuries hadn’t derailed two straight seasons. There’s a part of me that still leans toward giving him the runway to reset and rediscover the form he showed as a sophomore — because the talent didn’t just vanish, the circumstances did him in.
It’s hard to envision another NHL club stepping up to give Jellvik a real opportunity — though you can never rule it out entirely. At this point, there are reports he is signing in Europe as soon as he is eligible to sign a contract.
Andre Gasseau – Boston College
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 15 | 16 | 31 | 6 | 17 | 23 |
Gasseau’s season never really had a chance to breathe. Injuries capped him at just 23 games, and even before that, his full‑season pace suggested he was trending below his projected goal output while nudging ahead in assists. But any read on his production comes with an asterisk, because you can’t ignore the James Hagens effect. Playing alongside an elite driver like that can tilt the numbers — the real question is how much of Gasseau’s bump was his own growth and how much was riding shotgun with a star.
Reports surfaced that Gasseau was seeking an entry‑level deal for the remainder of this season — effectively burning the first year of his contract — with the threat of exploring unrestricted free agency if the Bruins didn’t comply. But nothing in his body of work this year, or across his NCAA career, suggests he’s the type of prospect you bend your development model for.
From my perspective, if there’s any truth to the reports circulating, it’s hard to see a fit. There’s nothing wrong with a player pushing for the best situation for himself, but there also has to be a grounding in reality. And if another club truly believes in him enough to offer a contract, then the logical move is to move his rights — even for a modest return — and let both sides move on cleanly.
Dean Letourneau – Boston College
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 7 | 11 | 18 | 22 | 17 | 39 |
Last offseason, I tried to calm the waters, reminding everyone that Letourneau’s freshman‑year numbers weren’t the story. Many weren’t interested in hearing it — at least not until this season got underway. Even then, early hesitation lingered among Bruins fans.
Given where expectations sat, any step forward this season would’ve been welcome — and frankly, simply meeting projections would have been enough for me. Instead, he blew past them. It’s a testament to his work ethic and the strides he’s made behind the scenes and on the ice.
At this point, the question isn’t if Letourneau will turn pro — it’s when. The current plan has him returning to Boston College for his junior season before making the jump, though that timeline could shift. Whenever he does arrive, Bruins fans should be ready to roll out the red carpet.
James Hagens – Boston College
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 21 | 33 | 54 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
Hagens is already an NHL’er, and at this point the only real storyline is his production. Both he and Boston College stumbled out of the gate, but once late November hit, his game took off. There’s zero concern here — his trajectory remains exactly where it should be.
Will Moore – Boston College
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 10 | 18 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Expectations for Moore were sky‑high coming into the season. And while I had zero concerns about Letourneau’s quiet freshman year, I’ll admit there’s at least a touch — not much, but a touch — more uncertainty with Moore.
With Oskar Jellvik and Andre Gasseau sidelined for much of the season, Moore never really got a sustained look higher in the lineup — aside from a brief window while James Hagens was away at the World Juniors. And once the calendar flipped to January, his ice time dropped off sharply.
He spent most of the year stuck on what was, frankly, a limited third line. And that’s not an excuse — if he had driven play more consistently, he would’ve earned more opportunity. But let’s not write him off. An offseason of preparation, now fully aware of what’s required at this level, will tell us a lot about where he goes from here.
Kristian Kostadinski – Boston College
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Offense has never been a defining element of Kostadinski’s game, and it’s no surprise he didn’t hit the projected benchmarks. In truth, there are several other areas of his toolkit that require far more attention and development than point production ever will.
Sometimes fans — and even management — can get a little too enamored with size. I’ll admit I fell into that trap here as well. But across three seasons since being drafted — one each in the U20 Nationell, the USHL, and the NCAA — the progression has been slow. The physical tools are there, but the development curve simply hasn’t matched the profile.
Am I down on Kostadinski? Absolutely. But I’m also willing to let the story play out. Hockey is full of late bloomers, and only time will reveal whether Kostadinski belongs in that category.
Elliott Groenewold – Quinnipiac University
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 8 | 14 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 20 |
Groenewold wrapped up his season almost exactly on script. Hitting a half‑point‑per‑game as a sophomore defenseman in the NCAA is solid in its own right, but it was his evolution as a true defensive presence that really popped. He led the entire NCAA with a staggering plus‑39 — a mark that sits inside the top ten all‑time — while logging every situation and absorbing the heaviest defensive assignments.
Groenewold racked up a well‑deserved stack of awards after the season, but there’s still plenty of runway in his development. His defensive game has come along faster than expected — and 20 points in 40 games is nothing to shrug at — but sharpening the offensive side remains a priority. It may or may not fully round out, but right now he’s already one of the organization’s more reliable defensive prospects. Next year will be his junior season, and it’s shaping up to be his last in the NCAA.
If he turns pro after next season, the expectation is he’ll need a couple of years in Providence to adjust to the pace and demands of the pro game.
Chris Pelosi – Quinnipiac University
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 17 | 15 | 32 | 18 | 16 | 34 |
Pelosi came in almost exactly on projection through his 35‑game campaign, and he did it while driving play night after night. He logged heavy minutes in every situation, brought a consistent work rate, and routinely set the tone for his team. His efforts didn’t go unnoticed, either — he earned a spot with Team USA at the Spengler Cup, a nod that speaks to how far his game has come.
It’s one of the reasons Pelosi’s decision not to turn pro feels like a bit of a head‑scratcher, especially with clear opportunities waiting for him in Providence next season. There isn’t an obvious element of his game that screams he’d be better served with another year at Quinnipiac instead of taking the next step. Maybe it’s as simple as wanting another shot at a championship after a disappointing finish — that’s a perfectly human motivation.
But in terms of pro readiness, he’s right near the top of the list. After James Hagens, he’s the most pro-ready prospect in this list. And we know where Hagens is now.
Jonathan Morello – Boston University
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 6 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Not eye‑popping numbers for the freshman, but he actually finished reasonably close to preseason projections. What’s important to remember is that he did it while spending almost the entire year anchored to the fourth line. Yes, he earned the occasional bump up the lineup to plug a hole, but those moments were few and far between.
When it comes to defensive reliability, Morello sits at the top of this entire group – at least among the forwards. That steadiness has been a defining part of his game dating back to his OJHL days. There’s also more offensive upside there than his numbers suggest — he simply hasn’t been put in many situations to show it. As a sophomore at Boston University next season, those opportunities should finally come. What he does with them will be entirely in his hands, and his progression will be one of the more interesting storylines to track.
There’s no question a logjam is forming in Boston, and with more prospects on the way, simply being defensively reliable may not be enough for Morello. He’ll need to show there’s another layer to his game if he wants to carve out a spot in a crowding pipeline.
Beckett Hendrickson – Minnesota
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 9 | 14 | 23 | 7 | 13 | 20 |
Given the state Minnesota found itself in — and the way Hendrickson was shuffled up and down the lineup — it’s almost surprising he came as close as he did to hitting his projections. At lower levels, production has always come naturally for him, but translating that to the college game has proven to be a far tougher climb.
Certain elements of Hendrickson’s game remained untouched by the turbulence. The speed, the nonstop motor, the relentless puck pursuit, the disruptive forecheck — all of it stayed intact. The real question now is whether the offensive touch he’s shown at every other level can finally translate to the NCAA stage, because that’s the piece still waiting to emerge.
Heading into his junior year, that’s the storyline that needs clarity — and he should be in line for better opportunities with Minnesota next season. How high he climbs will depend on how the Gophers’ roster shakes out, but ideally, you’d like to see Hendrickson pushed as far up as the second line with meaningful power‑play usage. That’s the kind of deployment that will give the clearest read on whether his offensive game can finally break through.
Ryan Walsh – Cornell University
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 21 | 18 | 39 | 10 | 23 | 33 |
Walsh has been something of an enigma this season. At the collegiate level, he built his reputation as a shooter first, but that profile flipped on its head this year as he leaned far more toward distribution. The shift raises concerns about his finishing touch. His goal total dropped by seven from last season and fell 11 short of his projection, a slide compounded by a significant dip in shots on goal — all while logging virtually the same ice time he saw as a sophomore.
On the other hand, it was encouraging to see him round out his game with another layer of playmaking. The hope, of course, was that this evolution wouldn’t come at the expense of his scoring touch. As a junior, he posted the lowest goal total of his three‑year NCAA career, a dip that shouldn’t define him but can’t be ignored either. His senior season needs to be about recalibrating — finding that balance between facilitator and finisher — because Walsh can score, and the Bruins will want to see that part of his game resurface.
I’ve said this plenty of times, but it was still disappointing to see Walsh opt for a senior season at Cornell — especially with so many roster spots expected to open in Providence next year. Now he’ll play out his fourth NCAA campaign, and the Bruins will face a firm deadline: they must sign him by August 15, 2027, or he’ll hit free agency. By then, he’ll be just 10 days shy of his 24th birthday, making him one of the oldest prospects in their pipeline.
Mason Langenbrunner – Harvard University
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 5 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Offense has never really been part of Langenbrunner’s toolkit, so it’s no surprise he fell short in that department. Across 130 NCAA games, he’s produced just 9 goals and 17 assists — numbers that reflect exactly the kind of defensive‑leaning profile he’s carried throughout his collegiate career.
It’s also no surprise he remains unsigned. An AHL deal in Providence would have been a reasonable look — a chance to see how his defensive game holds up against pros — but that’s about as far as the runway realistically extends.
He entered the transfer portal this spring and it looks like he will head back to college.
Cooper Simpson – Youngstown Phantoms
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 31 | 22 | 53 | 34 | 40 | 74 |
Simpson’s goal production landed almost exactly on projection, but the real surprise was his playmaking — he nearly doubled his expected assist total. For a player primarily viewed as a pure finisher, it was an encouraging development, especially since it didn’t come at the expense of his scoring touch the way it did for Walsh. Still, doing it in the USHL is one thing. With a move to North Dakota and the NCAA on deck next season, his progression becomes a must‑watch storyline as the competition stiffens and the demands rise.
Simpson finished among the league’s elite across the board — fourth in goals, sixth in assists, second in points, first in game‑winners, third in power‑play goals, second in power‑play assists, and third in shots on goal. He’s a volume shooter by nature, much like Will Zellers, the player he’ll join at North Dakota next season. If the two end up on the same line, Simpson’s emerging playmaking touch could elevate both of their games in a big way.
The 76th‑overall pick remains a longer‑term project for Boston — if he makes it. He’s still several years out, with at least two seasons at North Dakota likely ahead of him, and then, depending on his progression, a year in Providence to bridge the gap to the NHL level. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if it took longer.
Cole Chandler – Shawinigan Cataractes
| PROJECTED | ACTUAL | ||||
| G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| 12 | 21 | 33 | 20 | 32 | 52 |
When the Bruins grabbed Chandler in the fifth round of the 2025 NHL Draft, they did so with the belief they were getting a defensive specialist. But that kind of one‑dimensional profile is rapidly going extinct in today’s NHL, where versatility isn’t just preferred — it’s required.
To be fair, Chandler didn’t just meet his projections — he blew past them, even though those projections called for only modest growth from the previous season. That’s what you expect from a more experienced major junior player, especially in the QMJHL, where they typically take a step. He finished tied for 50th in league scoring, but then you remember he was still just 18. Among players his age, he ranked 13th, which puts his season in a much more impressive light.
Chandler is headed to Northeastern University next season, where the defensive side of his game should be well within his grasp. The real storyline will be how far his offensive game can climb, and whether the strides he made in junior can carry over against NCAA competition.
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