I am periodically asked how I set my expectations for a player at the start of the season. Well, there are two things. First, I watch what some might say is too much hockey. But in order to get a sense of how a player is progressing, there is no other choice. Not only are you looking for a year-over-year improvement in things such as skating, work ethic, physicality, defensive improvement among other things, but you’re looking for improvement within the season as well. In order to do that, you have to track the player and to track the player, you have to watch as much as possible.
The second thing I focus on is expected offense. It involves some math in trying to predict where they should be at in the upcoming season, but also some scouts, coaches and even the players themselves in some cases o where they expect to be.
That said, when it comes to numbers, context is everything and this is no different. If you are interested, read on. If you’re not, please drop by next week for more prospect updates.
I have broken it down to two charts showing what is forecast or expected and the player’s current stats and then some context on each of them.
After posting 12 goals and 19 assists in 51 games a year ago in the Finnish Liiga, more was expected from Mantykivi this season but he may not reach last season’s output. What he has done is developed into a bona-fide defensive forward. However, that defensive acumen may have come at the expense of offence.
Posted 18 goals and 16 assists in 44 games in the J20 Nationell a season ago and a marked jump was expected this season. It looks as though not only will Locmelis achieve those but surpass them. His assist totals were expected to take a major jump because of the quality of linemates he has.
Posted 26 goals and 29 assists in 41 games in the J20 Nationell last season and is one of the players jumping to a different league this season which makes it harder to predict. I don’t think his projection was unrealistic for a freshman and he is on track to meet them.
Posted 22 goals and 16 assists in 60 games in the USHL last season and made the jump to the NCAA. Gasseau has pretty much reached his expected output already so, I was either too kind to him or he has been better than anyone could have hoped to this point.
Had 9 goals and 11 assists in 36 games last season, Kuntar has surpassed that already. It was only a modest increase projected for Kuntar and it looks as though he will come close to achieving them. Still one of my favorite players to watch.
Had 4 goals and 25 assists in 31games last season. I admit that I have not figured out how to calculate the effects of coming back from surgery but, Lohrei is trending towards his projection and it shouldn’t be a knock against him if he doesn’t reach them because of that surgery.
The other Mason is coming off a 2 goal 20 assist 61 game campaign in the USHL to play his first season in the NCAA. There were no high expectations with Langenbrunner and just get your feet wet type of season. It looks as though that’s where it’s heading.
Spicer actually had a pretty good season a year ago with the USNDTP with 10 goals and 6 assist in 26 games. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always translate for first year players in the NCAA and that’s the case here, although much wasn’t expected in year one. It’s next year and beyond to watch Spicer.
I’ve talked about it several times here but. It’s worth repeating that Olson’s offensive game has not developed to the point it probably should have or, at least my expectations. He should achieve the 6 goals and 19 assists he had in 42 games a season ago.
Posted 8 goals and 16 assists in 39 games last season and he will be hard pressed to match those numbers this season let alone his projection. Injuries and illness have affected him this season and at this point, I hope for a bounce back season next year.
I’m sure there will be a segment of the fanbase that will say I was being conservative with Duran after his WJC showing in the summer. If he reaches 14 goals and 14 assists that’s a bonus season considering his game.
After a 5-goal 11-assist season as a sophomore, I nice jump to his offensive production this season wasn’t out of the question. Gallagher isn’t always given the prime offensive opportunities this year so, it’s hard to say if he’ll make it. I won’t be disappointed if he falls short.
McFaul never reached his offensive upside through his first 3 years of college. I don’t think anyone expected him to all of a sudden to find it as a senior. So, it was more of the same for McFaul here.
After posting 21 goals and 29 assists in 68 games last season, I have no explanation for this. Poitras had pretty much surpassed his expected assists already and will fall well short of expected goals but might still reach the expected 80 points.
After posting 27 goals and 34 assists in 65 games last season, a nice jump was expected in his goal output. I couldn’t predict “the trade” and the effect it would have and unlike Lohrei, I knew he would miss time at the start of the season with a broken leg. He too should hit his projection.
Mast had a pretty good season a year ago with 9 goals and 22 assists in 59 games. But he will fall well short of his projection due to the fact he missed 16 games with a broken jaw and a non-covid related illness. But if you take his goals and assists per game, he’s on pace.
One of two enigmas here, Edward had no goals and 6 assists in 54 games a season ago. For his usage and the type of defenceman he was used as a season ago, it didn’t project to much offence this season. With 20 games remaining in the season, he’s blown it out of the water. I said the system wasn’t perfect.
Brunet is the second enigma. He posted 12 goals and 34 assists in 63 game last season so a little jump was expected. He too is blowing it out of the water. I don’t think anyone could have expected him to be putting up points at a historic pace following his trade deadline trade.
Myrenberg as you know was acquired in season from the Vancouver Canucks so there wasn’t any prep work on him to start the season. He’s a prospect so I still wanted to include him on this list, regardless is I’m way off.
Here’s a look at the Providence Bruins leaders:
Coming up this week:
|PLAYER||MON 13||TUE 14||WED 15||THU 16||FRI 17||SAT 18||SUN 19|
|MANTYKIVI||At V S||At IFK||Vs Spa|
|MYRENBERG||At SOD||Vs OST|
|JELLVIK/GASSEAU/KUNTAR||Vs B U||V MASS||A MASS|
|LOHREI||Vs MI||Vs MI|
|LANGENBRUNNER||Vs N E||Vs UN||Vs REN|
|SPICER/OLSON||At DEN||At DEN|
|SCHMALTZ||At StC||At StC|
|DURAN/SVEDEBACK||At M-L||At M-L|
|GALLAGHER||Vs B C||At MER||At MER|
|MCFAUL||At COR||At COL|
|POITRAS||At SAR||Vs SAG||At OSH|
|HARRISON||Vs FLT||Vs MIS|
|MAST||Vs GUE||At LDN||Vs LDN|
|EDWARD||At KIT||Vs SAR||At SAR|
|BRUNET||Vs B-C||At SHA||Vs RIM|
|DYCK||At BDN||At WPG||At SC|
AROUND THE GLOBE
Andre Gasseau is having the quietest good season of any prospect. He’s on a modest 3 game point streak with 4 helpers, and with 2 goals and 9 assists in his last 10 games, the Freshman is now 4th in scoring for Boston College.
Trevor Kuntar is also on a modest 3-game point streak with 2 goals and an assist. Interesting stat: Gasseau has been in on 5 of Kuntar’s last 6 points. Kuntar is now 3rd in scoring for Boston College.
Matthew Poitras is on a 4-game point streak with 6 assists. In his last 10 games he has 3 goals and 12 assists. He leads his team in scoring by 19 points.
Frederic Brunet is pointless in his last two games as his Victoriaville Tigres squad was shut out by a combined score of 11-0 in those two games. Brunet still leads QMJHL defencemen in scoring and leads all players in powerplay assists.
Quinn Olson is on a 4-game point streak with 2 goals and 3 assists. For the Minnesota-Duluth Senior, that ties his longest point streak of his NCAA career. He leads his team in assists and is tied for 2nd in points.
Mason Lohrei scored his second goal of the season Saturday and has 2 goals and 5 assists in his last 10 games.
Jackson Edward is quietly having a good month of February. Through 6 games he has a goal and 3 assists as his London Knights continue to battle Brett Harrison and the Windsor Spitfires for top spot in the OHL Western Conference.
Ryan Mast isn’t relied on to bring offence like he once was, but the defenceman has a goal and 4 assists in his last 6 games and 2 goals and 6 assists in his last 11. Sunday marked his 150th OHL game of his career and despite being romped, it was his best game I have ever seen. Even down 7-3 in the last minute he was still giving it 100% hitting, blocking shots and creating offence.
Jake Schmaltz is still out with an injury.
Dans Locmelis and the J20 Nationell had the week off and he doesn’t play again until Friday.
One thought on “Boston Bruins Monday Morning Prospect Update Week Ending: February 12, 2022”
Is it me or is Poitras starting to look a bit like a second coming of Bergeron?
(So I’m clear I don’t expect him to be that good but I do like him)