Let me start by continuing were I left off last week: Shot attempts versus shots on goal. I am beginning here because it is an area where Coach Bruce Cassidy wanted an improvement on and while successful in the early part of the season despite not showing up on the scoreboard, the blueliners took a hit there last week. Except of course Matt Grzelcyk and a surprising Brandon Carlo.

Grzelcyk has always been at or near the top when it comes to successfully getting his shots on target. What is different this season compared to last is that he is attempting almost one full shot per game over last season, but his accuracy rate has jumped to 69.0% from 63.5%. However, the bad news is that the extra effort is still not appearing on the scoresheet.

If you were to re-watch Grzelcyk’s shot attempts you will see that the majority of the time he is not shooting to score, but is shooting with a purpose. A shot designed to create a rebound, or a shot to be redirected. That falls on the forwards. For whatever reason, they are just not getting their sticks on those pucks be it a rebound or for a deflection.

Carlo has been a pleasant surprise in this area. While he is still attempting the same 3.3 shots per game, his success rate in getting it through has taken a marked leap from 47.8% a season ago to 60.9% this season. It’s obvious that Carlo has put in the necessary work in improving that area of his game, like Grzelcyk it has yet to make an impact on the scoresheet.

There are though, two defenders I have an issue with to date in this area and it pains me to say they are Charlie McAvoy and Mike Reilly.

McAvoy is attempting almost one full shot per game less than he was a season ago and is only successful 50% of the time, up slightly from the 48.7% a season ago. He appears to be passing up opportunities to shoot. It was evident on the two-on-one on Saturday’s win over Florida when he attempted to make an impossible pass – and it got blocked. He was in a prime shooting are and the correct decision would have been to shoot. Even if he thought he couldn’t score from there, he could have gone far side on the ice for a sure rebound and a tap in. Yes, he scored a goal, but the decision to shoot there was the easiest decision he’ll have to make this season.

The concern about Reilly is even more serious. Despite attempting just, a tad more shots than he did a season ago with the Bruins, he just can’t seem to get his shots through to the target. His success rate is a team worst 38.5%, down a whopping 21.6% from a season ago.

I don’t know what the issue is with Reilly. I can’t pinpoint anything he is doing differently other than rushing the shot sometimes. But if the Bruins are going to be successful in deploying this strategy, Reilly is going to have to up his game.

Here’s a look at last season’s stats, followed by this season:

In their own zone, the group has been more than adequate. They are retrieving pucks and moving them quickly but when they are hemmed in their own zone, for the most part they are positioned soundly. It’s the forwards on the squad that are having the difficulty clearing the zone and making ill advised decisions.

That said, hockey is a game of mistakes and usually the team that makes the fewest mistakes comes out on top. And the Bruins defense has had their fair share of them. Think back to Wednesday’s game in Florida when Connor Clifton was indecisive on whether to attack the back of the net or tie up an opponents stick in front of his net. That resulted in a goal for Florida and is probably the top reason why he was sat out the next night against Carolina.

Now. Let’s turn the focus to the defensive pairs. Here are the numbers for the 23 different pairs the Bruins have used this season:

Everyone knows the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing are analytic darlings and there is no denying that. But the numbers show that the Bruins can not afford to put all their eggs in one basket and only use the pair when the situation calls for it. And Cassidy has said as much himself.

The Reilly-Carlo pairing is not what it was a season ago. The shots given up are on par with the shots taken when they are on the ice but they are giving up more high danger shots than are created when on the ice as a pair. Which is the most likely reason Cassidy decided to go with a Grzelcyk-Carlo pair more on Saturday versus Florida. While the shots-for and shots-against were equal to the Reilly-Carlo pair (considering TOI) the high danger area shots were a whopping 62.5% in favor of Grzelcyk- Carlo compared to 42.86 for Reilly-Carlo.

Of course, that affects the bottom pairing and who plays with Clifton. While the Grzelcyk-Clifton pairing has done alright, the Reilly-Clifton pairing works just a tad better. The high danger chances for and against heavily favor the Reilly-Clifton pair while the shots for and against favor the Grzelcyk-Clifton pair.

Surprisingly enough, some of the numbers suggest that Derek Forbort is better paired with Clifton than he is with any other defenseman. And it’s not a small sample size either. It might work when Grzelcyk is paired with McAvoy, but that means Reilly goes back with Carlo. And it is my belief that Forbort and Carlo should only be on the ice together if killing a penalty or protecting a lead late. And it’s not a small sample size either. But that’s something for Bruins data scientist Josh Pohlkamp—Hartt and the coaching staff to figure out.

My conclusion is one some of you will agree with and some of you will not, and trust me when I say it pains me to say this: I believe the Bruins need an upgrade on Connor Clifton. Cliffy hockey has his moments when he shines brightly, but I don’t think you can count on it for an 82-game schedule and a long playoff run. I think he is better suited (and the Bruins will be too) as a seventh defenseman.

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There’s been a subtle little difference in how the Boston Bruins blue liners operate this season and the credit goes to Coach Bruce Cassidy. And unless you are looking for it, you will barely notice.

The defenders are a little quicker at retrieving pucks than the 13 defensemen Cassidy was forced to use due to the numerous injuries on the back end last season. That means the forwards don’t have to come back deeper into their own zone to support the defensemen and they transition to offense with greater ease.

But the thing Cassidy had them work on the most was getting pucks through to the net in hopes of picking up the dirty goals and second chance opportunities. It’s a work in progress of course, and the Bruins now have the players that are willing to go to the dirty areas to pounce on those second chances.

The Bruins had a total of 10 defensemen a season ago who played in a minimum of 10 games. Here is the sorry stat of the day for you: Of those 10, only 3 of them had more than 50% of their shot attempts find the target. Matt Grzelcyk led the way at 63.5% followed by Mike Reilly at 59.6% and Jared Tinordi (who as you know is no longer here) at 56.4%.

Kevan Miller, now retired was a team worst 40.9% followed by Jakub Zboril at 42.7%. Too many shots were missing the target while many of them were getting blocked.

Not only are they finding the target more often, but they are attempting more controlled shots as well. They aren’t back-scratching wind ups from the blue line. They are shots with a purpose, attempts that their teammates can get a stick on to deflect or on net to create a rebound. It hasn’t really paid off just yet, but it’s a work in progress. And they really haven’t played a lot of hockey to get into a grove.

Let’s take a look at last season’s stats:

And here is where we are today:

I’m not going to break down all these stats for you. You need something to do in your spare time. But I will break down the attempted shots on goal (ASOG) and the shots on goal (SOG) as it is the thing Cassidy has instilled in them the most.

Grzelcyk has always been the king of the hill at getting shots through to the target. Last season, 63.5% of his attempts made it to it’s intended target but even he has improved in that area with a 70.6% success rate to date this season. And to add to that, Grzelcyk is attempting 1 shot per game more that a season ago.

For now, you may be surprised to know that Grzelcyk is not at the top of the charts and that Derek Forbort has that distinction with a 72.7% success rate, not quite twice the rate he had last season with the Winnipeg Jets at 38.5%. His actual shot attempts dropped slightly from 3.1 per game to 2.8 per game this season.

Charlie McAvoy is quite interesting. Last season he was below 50% success rate at 48.7%. Like Grzelcyk, McAvoy has had a pretty noticeable jump to 53.8%. But unlike Grzelcyk, McAvoy’s actual shot attempts have dropped by half a shot per game. The eye test will also confirm that McAvoy is picking his spots better. The difference between the pair though is that Grzelcyk will find the target more often than not from anywhere on the ice with a better success rate than McAvoy.

Even Connor Clifton is finding more success, jumping from 2.3 attempted shots per game a season ago to 3 per game this season. And he’s finding the target at a better clip as well going from 46.6% to 55.6%.

Ditto for Brandon Carlo who is attempting 3.5 shots per game this season versus 3.3 last season. Not a major jump however, his success rate jumps from 47.8% to 64.3% – surprisingly the best improvement on the team.

Surprisingly though, it’s Mike Reilly that is trending downwards. If you recall prior to Reilly’s arrival in Boston, the blueliners were having a hard time finding the target with the exception of Grzelcyk. Enter Reilly and his 59.6% success rate and things looked brighter. However, he’s dropped to a team low 50% through 4 games this season while attempting the same 3.5 shots per game.

As I said earlier, this is a work in progress and the results have yet to come to fruition, except for maybe Forbort’s goal yesterday is evidence that any shot on target has a chance. The Bruins need to play more games and get into a rhythm. The forwards need to continue to get to the net and pounce on those second chance opportunities.

What about the pairs?

Well, I’m not an NHL coach so I trust in what the coaching staff decide. Fans? They have their opinions and they range from we need a top pair left-handed defenseman to let’s trade Forbort, to the right side is weak after McAvoy and Carlo so we need a right shot defenseman. That’s the beauty of the internet – everyone is allowed to have an opinion.   

I’m always reminded of something my high school teacher said some 50 years ago: “If I ask a question that begins with ‘what’s your opinion’ then your answer can not be wrong. I asked for your opinion and no matter how stupid it is, you gave me what I asked for – you opinion.”

I don’t begrudge anyone having an opinion, I just don’t have one. I will listen to everyone’s argument and for the most part, they all make some sort of sense.

So, instead of me trying to sort through it all and formulate some sort of response, I will leave you with the stats of each pair on the ice for the Bruins and maybe you can make heads or tails out of it.

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