The Curious Case of Jake DeBrusk

If you’re a goal scorer in the National Hockey League like Jake DeBrusk, you’d better be bringing something to the ice if you aren’t finding the back of the net. And DeBrusk has been struggling to bulge the twine with just one goal on the season.

This is a contract year for DeBrusk and some early conversations about an extension have already taken place. No one knows how those discussions are going, but they can’t be too favorable for the 27-year-old winger still in his prime and coming off his best offensive season with 27 goals and 23 assists in 64 games.

DeBrusk has been averaging 17:31 TOI through 14 games. He’s had 62 shot attempts with 30 of them reaching the target or 48.4%. It is an indication that he is gripping the stick and not always making the best decisions when the puck is on his blade. To say the draught isn’t affecting him may be an understatement.

And his one goal on 30 shots is a measly 3.3 shooting percentage, uncharacteristically low for a player that possesses a shot of DeBrusk’s caliber. Again, an indication that he is gripping his stick but also not recognizing he has a split second longer than he realizes to make his shot decision.

Further impacting his offence is his powerplay TOI. He’s fifth among Bruins forwards with 1:30 powerplay time per game. That net front presence where he could score some goals in previous years has been reduced.

In fairness to DeBrusk, other aspects of his game have really improved. He’s tied for second in PK TOI among forwards behind Charlie Coyle (2:44) and tied with Brad Marchand (2:10). There’s not much of a difference between his O-zone starts (51.2%) and D-zone starts (48.8%), continuing to earn the trust of his coaches. But who his linemates are also plays a role in this. 

Again, DeBrusk is a goal scorer still in his prime. This type of swing in a player is usually reserved for players in their thirties trying to prolong their careers. I don’t think DeBrusk is changing the type of player he is, it’s actually great to see him rounding out his game. And I do believe he will find his scoring touch again – he’s always been a streaky player.

There’s been plenty of turnover in the Bruins roster and that has to have some affect on DeBrusk. Last season I often spoke about DeBrusk needing some regularity in his game. Some fans suggested in their mock lineups of moving DeBrusk around but I was dead against that idea because he needed that regularity. It’s an argument I made when Bruce Cassidy was coach and one, I will make with Jim Montgomery running the bench.

This season, DeBrusk has moved around a bit. From right wing to left wing, from top line to second line to third line and with little regularity when it came to his linemates. Finding chemistry and confidence is huge. But there are mixed results when he’s paired up with different linemates.

Thanks to Natural Stat Trick, here’s a look at some stats his teammates have had with and without DeBrusk:

Linemate	TOI w/	TOI w/o	CF% w/	CF% w/o	FF% w/	FF% w/o
	JDB	JDB	JDB	JDB	JDB	JDB
Charlie Coyle	70:22	114:52	51.39	41.67	46.88	43.71
Matthew Poitras	70:52	118.43	50.67	47.84	53.27	46..03
Brad Marchand	55.34	125:27	56.69	50.39	51.90	49.74
Morgan Geekie	40:55	109:00	53.06	50.00	56.34	46.71
Pavel Zacha	26:04	162:01	48.33	47.58	44.23	44.66
Danton Heinen	35:13	40:57	41.94	41.79	41.46	46.94
David Pastrnak	20:34	188:24	56.52	50.13	59.46	48.32
Linemate	SF% w/	SF% w/o	xGF% w/	xGF% w/o	HDCF% w/	HDCF% w/o
	JDB	JDB	JDB	JDB	JDB	JDB
Charlie Coyle	50.75	48.62	52.29	45.22	58.06	48.28
Matthew Poitras	53.33	46.03	63.88	46.58	50.00	53.49
Brad Marchand	53.57	45.71	58.04	44.24	62.07	42.31
Morgan Geekie	53.06	45.13	60.09	50.05	50.00	58.00
Pavel Zacha	51.43	43.43	50.81	44.60	46.15	38.60
Danton Heinen	41.94	51.52	53.13	52.33	50.00	50.00
David Pastrnak	78.26	48.36	77.13	48.40	83.33	44.78

In almost every case, a player’s numbers are better with DeBrusk than without. Obviously, some great numbers with David Pastrnak, but we’re talking Pastrnak here. And if I didn’t look it up myself, I never would have guessed Pastrnak’s numbers are better almost across the board with DeBrusk than without DeBrusk. What caught my attention the most is the discrepancy.

Analytics are great, and I use them with caution most of the time. There is a place for them in the game and ultimately its wins that matter. In the end, some pucks in the net would be beneficial. Instead of relying on Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman to steal wins for you, getting some breathing room would be of great benefit. Extending the lead, DeBrusk can help with that.

But what line is DeBrusk best suited for? The line of DeBrusk and Pastrnak centered by Pavel Zacha has some great numbers but also the least amount of time together. DeBrusk with Matthew Poitras and the injured Morgan Geekie also did well but not so well with Danton Heinen filling in for Geekie.

Here’s a look at four lines DeBrusk has played on, again thanks to Natural Stat Trick:

Linemates	TOI	CF%	FF%	SF%	xGF%	HDCF%
DeBrusk/Coyle/Marchand	49:49	54.05	47.06	47.92	52.06	57.69
DeBrusk/Poitras/Geekie	30:37	55.07	58.82	54.05	65.16	50.00
DeBrusk/Poitras/Heinen	26:45	43.48	41.38	42.86	55.69	33.33
DeBrusk/Zacha/Pastrnak	14:16	61.29	57.69	76.47	74.33	75.00

While there is still value for some of the things DeBrusk is bringing – our friends at Bench Rates has his value dropping last week but still of great value to the Bruins – finding his offence is critical to the Bruins continuing to exceed expectations and even more critical to DeBrusk’s ongoing contract negotiations.

And I still believe finding a regular spot in the lineup is the best thing for DeBrusk. No more moving around and changing linemates.

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